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Valencia logo
Copa del Rey | Quarter-Finals
Jan 26, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio de Mestalla
Athletic Bilbao logo

Valencia
1 - 3
Athletic Bilbao

de Marcos (43' og.)
Diakhaby (28'), Musah (45+2'), Comert (73'), Moriba (90+7')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Muniain (35'), Williams (45'), Vesga (74' pen.)
Vivian (32'), Sancet (88'), Agirrezabala (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa del Rey clash between Valencia and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Valencia

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Valencia 2-2 Almeria
Monday, January 23 at 8pm in La Liga

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Real Madrid
Sunday, January 22 at 8pm in La Liga

We said: Valencia 0-1 Athletic Bilbao

 A low-scoring closely-fought contest is to be expected on Thursday, considering that no more than two goals have found the net in any of the last six meetings. Valencia have struggled against top-flight teams in recent months and they may find it challenging to grind out a result here, with Bilbao potentially scraping through with a slender victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
ValenciaDrawAthletic Bilbao
38.67% (0.369 0.37) 26.05% (-0.382 -0.38) 35.28% (0.012 0.01)
Both teams to score 53.97% (1.264 1.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.54% (1.611 1.61)50.46% (-1.611 -1.61)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.61% (1.405 1.41)72.39% (-1.407 -1.41)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.44% (0.95099999999999 0.95)25.56% (-0.952 -0.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.58% (1.279 1.28)60.42% (-1.281 -1.28)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.5% (0.78100000000001 0.78)27.5% (-0.782 -0.78)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37% (0.998 1)63% (-0.998 -1)
Score Analysis
    Valencia 38.67%
    Athletic Bilbao 35.28%
    Draw 26.04%
ValenciaDrawAthletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 9.59% (-0.365 -0.37)
2-1 @ 8.44% (0.099 0.1)
2-0 @ 6.54% (-0.067 -0.07)
3-1 @ 3.84% (0.146 0.15)
3-0 @ 2.97% (0.05 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.48% (0.146 0.15)
4-1 @ 1.31% (0.084 0.08)
4-0 @ 1.01% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 38.67%
1-1 @ 12.37% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-0 @ 7.03% (-0.469 -0.47)
2-2 @ 5.45% (0.18 0.18)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.085 0.09)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.04%
0-1 @ 9.07% (-0.396 -0.4)
1-2 @ 7.99% (0.052 0.05)
0-2 @ 5.86% (-0.122 -0.12)
1-3 @ 3.44% (0.096 0.1)
0-3 @ 2.52% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.127 0.13)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.055 0.06)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 35.28%

How you voted: Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao

Valencia
28.3%
Draw
21.2%
Athletic Bilbao
50.5%
212
Head to Head
Aug 21, 2022 4.30pm
Athletic Bilbao
1-0
Valencia
Berenguer (42')
Vivian (12'), Muniain (68'), Simon (79'), Berchiche (86'), Alvarez (88')

Musah (23'), Diakhaby (74')
May 7, 2022 3.15pm
Athletic Bilbao
0-0
Valencia

Alvarez (8'), Williams (77'), de Marcos (90'), Simon (90+9')

Diakhaby (26'), Moriba (53'), Guillamon (72')
Guillamon (90+8')
Mar 2, 2022 8.30pm
Semi-Finals
Valencia
1-0
Athletic Bilbao
Guedes (43')
Paulista (26'), Alderete (73'), Diakhaby (90+2')

Martinez (60'), Zarraga (90+5')
Feb 10, 2022 8.30pm
Semi-Finals
Athletic Bilbao
1-1
Valencia
Garcia (37')
Garcia (63')
Duro (65')
Foulquier (43'), Diakhaby (80'), Duro (90')
Gomez (45+1')
Sep 25, 2021 3.15pm
Valencia
1-1
Athletic Bilbao
Maranhao (90+5')
Gomez (45+4'), Guillamon (47'), Jason (90+2'), Vallejo (90+8')
Gomez (82')
Martinez (69')
Garcia (49'), Berenguer (78')
rhs 2.0
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