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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 25.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
Result | ||
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
52.11% ( 0.29) | 22.56% ( -0.18) | 25.33% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 60.26% ( 0.53) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.27% ( 0.76) | 39.73% ( -0.76) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.92% ( 0.78) | 62.08% ( -0.78) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.64% ( 0.37) | 15.36% ( -0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.86% ( 0.69) | 44.14% ( -0.69) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.2% ( 0.32) | 28.81% ( -0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.35% ( 0.4) | 64.66% ( -0.4) |
Score Analysis |
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-1 @ 9.66% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.84% Total : 52.11% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.16) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.56% | 1-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.4% Total : 25.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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