Major League Soccer
Sep 24, 2023 at 6pm UK
Yankee Stadium
We said: New York City FC 2-0 Toronto
New York City have hit their stride in recent weeks and will be licking their lips as they take on an out-of-sorts Toronto side who have lost 12 of their last 13 matches. The Pigeons picked up an emphatic 5-0 victory when they met in the Leagues Cup back in July and we are backing them to come out on top once again.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.55% . A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 11.26% .
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.74% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.51%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.13%) , while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (3.48%) . The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result New York City FC Draw Toronto 71.55% ( 0.23) 17.19% ( -0.07) 11.26% ( -0.16)
Both teams to score 50.14% ( -0.35)
60.89% ( -0.17) 39.11% ( 0.16)
38.56% ( -0.17) 61.43% ( 0.17)
90.34% ( 0.01) 9.66% ( -0.01)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 67.76% ( 0.03) 32.23% ( -0.03)
55.5% ( -0.4) 44.5% ( 0.4)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 19.47% ( -0.32) 80.53% ( 0.32)
New York City FC 71.54%
Toronto 11.26%
Draw 17.19%
New York City FC Draw Toronto 2-0 @ 11.74% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.02% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.79% Total : 71.54% 1-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.91% Total : 17.19% 0-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.04% Total : 11.26%
How you voted: NY City vs Toronto
New York City FC
Draw
Toronto
11
rhs 2.0
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