Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 26.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
49.42% ( -0.39) | 24.47% ( 0.11) | 26.1% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 54.53% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.36% ( -0.25) | 47.64% ( 0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.16% ( -0.23) | 69.84% ( 0.23) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.68% ( -0.25) | 19.32% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.92% ( -0.41) | 51.08% ( 0.41) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.59% ( 0.09) | 32.41% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.07% ( 0.1) | 68.92% ( -0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
1-0 @ 10.29% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.46% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.91% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 49.42% | 1-1 @ 11.59% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.58% Total : 26.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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