Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 60.5%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 17.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Braga |
17.95% ( -0.01) | 21.55% ( -0.01) | 60.5% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 52.8% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.5% ( 0.03) | 44.49% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.14% ( 0.03) | 66.86% ( -0.03) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.57% ( 0.01) | 38.42% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.82% ( 0.01) | 75.18% ( -0.01) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.74% ( 0.01) | 14.26% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.97% ( 0.03) | 42.03% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 5.24% ( -0) 2-1 @ 4.88% ( -0) 2-0 @ 2.51% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.56% 3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 17.95% | 1-1 @ 10.2% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.54% | 0-1 @ 10.67% 0-2 @ 10.39% 1-2 @ 9.94% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.75% ( 0) 1-3 @ 6.46% ( 0) 0-4 @ 3.29% ( 0) 1-4 @ 3.14% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.09% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.5% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.28% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.77% Total : 60.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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