The Seattle Sounders will put their undefeated record on the line on Sunday when they host Austin FC for the very first time at Lumen Field.
The Sounders dropped their first points of their 2021 campaign last week in a 1-1 draw with Atlanta United, while Austin have lost three in a row heading into this matchup.
Match preview
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After an impressive opening six matches this season, Seattle suffered their first blemish last weekend, conceding a penalty in the 86th minute.
For a team that have been so focused and determined to be perfect in every department, they will not be pleased that they let two points slip away, especially given that they had the lead for 80 minutes.
When you look at the big picture, it is probably just a minor hiccup, as Brian Schmetzer has seen his team execute his new system incredibly well, conceding only three goals all season, not a single one of which has been from open play.
The 2020 MLS Cup runners-up were criticised before this season for not signing any big-name players, but they have proved all the critics wrong up until now, dominating many of the elite teams in the league.
Joao Paulo has been a gem in midfield with pin-point crossing and terrific poise and control with the ball in a midfield that have been exceptionally strong through their first seven games.
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The newest MLS franchise started strongly through their first three games of the season, winning twice, but they have since cooled off.
Facing two tough teams in Sporting Kansas City and Nashville SC, along with the improved LA Galaxy, Josh Wolff and his team are learning how important it is to stay sharp while not resting on your laurels.
Los Verdes have been humbled over their past two MLS fixtures, firing two shots on goal versus the Galaxy and only one shot on target last week against one of the top defensive units in MLS in Nashville.
Austin have had their share of possession with at least 55% in their past two defeats, but they have been disappointing in front of goal and are not doing enough with the ball.
The season, however, is still very early, they are still in the race for a playoff position and they will have some time after this match to recharge their batteries with the upcoming international break.
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Team News
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The Sounders will be without goalkeeper Stefan Frei, who continues to recover from a knee injury.
Attacking midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro is struggling with knee problems, and defensive midfielder Jordy Delem is likely out for the long term with a cruciate ligament rupture.
Alex Roldan and Yeimar Gomez have done a marvellous job in neutralising opposing teams on the counter, with 40 interceptions between them.
For Austin, attacking midfielder Ulises Segura and striker Aaron Schoenfeld are both out with knee injuries.
Left-back Ben Sweat has a cruciate ligament rupture, and fellow left-back Hector Jimenez has a medial collateral ligament injury.
Cecilio Dominguez is goalless in his last four games after scoring twice in a 3-1 victory over Minnesota United, and veteran central midfielder Alexander Ring returned last week after serving a two-game suspension for a red card in their defeat to Sporting KC.
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Gomez, Arreaga, Tolo; Roldan, Rowe, Paulo, Smith; Roldan; Bruin, Ruidiaz
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Kolmanic, Besler, Romana, Lima; Pochettino, Ring, Pereira; Dominguez, Hoesen, Redes
We say: Seattle Sounders 3-0 Austin FC
These teams have never faced each other, which may be a slight advantage for Austin, but even so, Brian Schmetzer and the Sounders are fast learners and should adjust their tactics quickly if needed.
Austin have only scored one goal in their last three games and have fired just two shots or fewer on target in their past two matches, which is not super encouraging when you are getting ready to face the strongest defensive side in MLS.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Seattle Sounders win with a probability of 68.28%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 13.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Seattle Sounders win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.32%), while for an Austin FC win it was 1-2 (3.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
