Coming off the back of contrasting fortunes in their weekend matchups, Chelsea and Arsenal prepare for battle in Wednesday's Premier League London derby at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues beat Crystal Palace 2-0 in their FA Cup semi-final over the weekend, while Mikel Arteta's side slumped to a third defeat on the bounce during their trip to Southampton.
Match preview
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Failure to sustain a Premier League title charge, clinch the EFL Cup crown or successfully defend their Champions League title are all blots on Thomas Tuchel's 2021-22 notebook, but the Blues are now only 90 minutes away from ending the season with a coveted trophy to their name.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Mason Mount's composed finishes in the second half saw Chelsea break the Palace resistance in their FA Cup semi-final on Sunday afternoon, with the Blues facing Liverpool for the second time in a domestic cup final this term as they seek vengeance for their EFL Cup penalty heartache.
Tuchel's side have successfully proved that their minor blip from the start of the month was indeed just a minor blip, with a 6-0 thumping of Southampton also seeing them cement their third-placed position in the Premier League table - five points clear of Tottenham Hotspur with two games in hand.
Back-to-back home defeats to Brentford and Real Madrid could yet lead to a sense of apprehension creeping in among the Stamford Bridge fanbase ahead of Wednesday's game, especially seeing as they have only won 50% of their home league games this term to collect 26 points on their own turf - the eighth-best record in the league.
It has been 29 years since Chelsea last suffered a trio of consecutive defeats on their own turf in all competitions, although the third defeat in that sequence did come against Arsenal, who will undoubtedly need history to be on their side this week amid their alarming downturn in fortunes.
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Even before the first ball was kicked at St Mary's, a portion of Arsenal fans were already growing fearful of the prospect of Southampton ending their dismal run of form in Saturday's game, with the Saints previously running out 4-0 winners over the Gunners amid their streak of losses in December 2015.
In the end, Gooners' fears were well-founded, as Jan Bednarek slammed home the contest's only goal with 44 minutes on the clock, and Arsenal just could not find their way past the impenetrable Fraser Forster, who was nothing short of "exceptional" as a frustrated Mikel Arteta put it.
Taking zero points and scoring just one goal in meetings with Crystal Palace, Brighton & Hove Albion and Southampton has not only threatened Arsenal's top-four dreams, but their hopes of European football at all, as Arteta's side have now slipped to sixth in the rankings and remain three points adrift of Tottenham Hotspur with a game in hand following their own defeat to the Seagulls.
With Spurs and Manchester United both possessing a tendency to drop crucial points as well, Arsenal could yet reignite their top-four bid with victories over their continental-challenging rivals in the final few weeks of the season, and never before in their 136-year history have they suffered three consecutive London derby defeats away from home without scoring.
Chelsea eased to a 2-0 win on the Emirates turf in the second gameweek of the 2021-22 Premier League season, but Arsenal have avoided defeat in their last two trips to Stamford Bridge and can be something of a bogey team for the Blues, whose last league double over the Gunners came back in the 2015-16 campaign.
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Team News
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Chelsea lost Mateo Kovacic to an ankle injury after just 26 minutes of the FA Cup semi-final win over Palace, and while the extent of the damage is currently unclear, Tuchel admitted that the injury looked like a serious one after the full-time whistle.
Kovacic is being kept company in the treatment room by long-term absentees Ben Chilwell and Callum Hudson-Odoi, while Ross Barkley missed the Palace win after a recent bout of sickness, but that could very well have been a tactical choice from Tuchel.
N'Golo Kante will expect to slot straight back into the engine room in Kovacic's absence, and it would not be a surprise to see Tuchel consider handing Romelu Lukaku a start given how much he terrorized the Arsenal backline at the Emirates earlier this season.
Meanwhile, Arsenal right-back Takehiro Tomiyasu is due to return to team training before Wednesday's game and could be in with a shot at making his comeback here, but Thomas Partey and Kieran Tierney are both still out.
Captain Alexandre Lacazette's participation is also up in the air after he tested positive for COVID-19 before the Southampton clash, so Eddie Nketiah could once again be tasked with leading the line at Stamford Bridge.
Arteta does possess the option to move Gabriel Martinelli into a central role and bring Emile Smith Rowe back in on the left-hand side - a formula which Arsenal fans have been crying out for - and the England international does have fond memories of the ground after scoring the winner in Arsenal's 1-0 triumph there last term.
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Mendy; James, Silva, Rudiger; Azpilicueta, Kante, Jorginho, Alonso; Mount, Werner; Lukaku
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tavares; Xhaka, Lokonga; Saka, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Martinelli
We say: Chelsea 2-0 Arsenal
Chelsea have not always produced the goods against Arsenal on a consistent basis down the years, but the respective squad depths and confidence of the two sides will certainly come into play here.
Arteta's side have lost their golden touch in front of goal since the international break, and the Spaniard's system is far less effective when his first-choice XI are not all there, so we can only picture Tuchel's side running out comfortable winners via another two-goal margin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 52.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Arsenal had a probability of 23.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for an Arsenal win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
