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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
36.45% | 24.92% | 38.62% |
Both teams to score 58% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.67% | 45.33% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.33% | 67.67% |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.58% | 24.41% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.16% | 58.83% |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.74% | 23.26% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.81% | 57.18% |
Score Analysis |
Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 8.23% 1-0 @ 8.01% 2-0 @ 5.65% 3-1 @ 3.87% 3-2 @ 2.82% 3-0 @ 2.65% 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-2 @ 1% 4-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.93% Total : 36.45% | 1-1 @ 11.67% 2-2 @ 6% 0-0 @ 5.68% 3-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.92% | 1-2 @ 8.52% 0-1 @ 8.28% 0-2 @ 6.04% 1-3 @ 4.14% 0-3 @ 2.94% 2-3 @ 2.92% 1-4 @ 1.51% 0-4 @ 1.07% 2-4 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.15% Total : 38.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 32 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 84 |
2 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 32 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 69 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 36 | 38 | 63 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 41 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 64 | -8 | 40 |
9 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 38 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 38 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 33 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 33 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 33 | 50 | -17 | 29 |
17 | FC Koln | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 24 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 17 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |