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Toronto FC
Major League Soccer
Oct 1, 2023 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
FC Cincinnati

Toronto
2 - 3
Cincinnati

Osorio (39', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Vazquez (28', 35'), Boupendza (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: NY City 3-0 Toronto
Sunday, September 24 at 6pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 3-0 Charlotte FC
Sunday, September 24 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Toronto 1-2 FC Cincinnati

Despite having clinched a playoff berth a long time ago, Noonan has managed to maintain a high level of intensity within this group and being a few games away from potentially making MLS history should keep them motivated this weekend. Herdman is a wonderful motivator himself who seems to have the Midas touch with the national teams he has coached, but it will take more than his inspirational words to clean up Toronto's defensive frailties.

How to watch

You can watch Toronto vs. FC Cincinnati and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
34.18% (0.388 0.39) 24.97% (0.07 0.07) 40.85% (-0.46400000000001 -0.46)
Both teams to score 57.46% (-0.153 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.12% (-0.24 -0.24)45.88% (0.235 0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.81% (-0.228 -0.23)68.19% (0.22500000000001 0.23)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.03% (0.11500000000001 0.12)25.97% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.02% (0.156 0.16)60.98% (-0.161 -0.16)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.61% (-0.331 -0.33)22.39% (0.326 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.11% (-0.492 -0.49)55.89% (0.488 0.49)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 34.18%
    FC Cincinnati 40.85%
    Draw 24.97%
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 7.91% (0.056 0.06)
1-0 @ 7.84% (0.105 0.11)
2-0 @ 5.28% (0.088 0.09)
3-1 @ 3.56% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.66% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.048 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.2% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 34.18%
1-1 @ 11.73% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.81% (0.058 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.33% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.97%
1-2 @ 8.78% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
0-1 @ 8.7% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 6.51% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-3 @ 4.38% (-0.069 -0.07)
0-3 @ 3.25% (-0.063 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.95% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.64% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-4 @ 1.22% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.11% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 40.85%

How you voted: Toronto vs Cincinnati

Toronto
9.1%
Draw
0.0%
FC Cincinnati
90.9%
11
Head to Head
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
3-0
Toronto
Arias (35'), Acosta (54'), Badji (63')
Nwobodo (19'), Gaddis (41'), Halsey (82')

Petretta (25'), Bernardeschi (41')
May 5, 2022 12.30am
Cincinnati
2-0
Toronto
Harris (2'), Acosta (57' pen.)
Nwobodo (59'), Blackett (75'), Barreal (88')

Nelson (12')
Priso-Mbongue (6')
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
Sep 30, 2021 12am
Gameweek 36
Toronto
3-2
Cincinnati
Shaffelburg (48'), Delgado (55'), Achara (65')
Achara (59'), Soteldo (76'), Marshall-Rutty (90')

Valot (32'), Castillo (41'), Vallecilla (59'), Stanko (74')
Sep 12, 2021 1am
Gameweek 30
Cincinnati
2-0
Toronto
Medunjanin (45+3'), Cameron (50'), Vallecilla (84'), Valot (85')
Morrow (37')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami1594236201631
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati149321911830
3New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls146532521423
4New York City FCNY City147251816223
5Toronto147162120122
6Columbus Crew135621913621
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC146351413121
8Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia134542521417
9DC United144552024-417
10Orlando City134451520-516
11Nashville SCNashville133641720-315
12Atlanta UnitedAtlanta133461716113
13CF MontrealMontreal133371731-1412
14Chicago Fire142481326-1310
15New England RevolutionNew England12219925-167

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Salt LakeSalt Lake1484227141328
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd127322114724
3Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy145722521422
4Austin FCAustin146441917222
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles136342419521
6Colorado RapidsColorado146352423121
7Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver135441915419
8Houston DynamoHouston135351213-118
9St Louis City133731920-116
10Seattle SoundersSeattle143561617-114
11Portland TimbersPortland143472629-313
12Dallas123361317-412
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas132562124-311
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes1431102233-1110


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