Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.9%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.91%) and 1-0 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.16%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Boavista |
79.9% ( -2.19) | 13.05% ( 1.31) | 7.05% ( 0.88) |
Both teams to score 47.43% ( -0.43) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.99% ( -3.12) | 33.02% ( 3.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.26% ( -3.68) | 54.74% ( 3.68) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.56% ( -1.03) | 6.44% ( 1.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.9% ( -2.9) | 24.1% ( 2.9) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.7% ( 0.1) | 49.3% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.83% ( 0.07) | 84.17% ( -0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Boavista |
2-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.57) 3-0 @ 10.91% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.91) 2-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.43) 3-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.57) 4-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.39) 5-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.59) 5-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.41) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.41) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.13) 6-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.28) 5-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.14) Other @ 3.54% Total : 79.89% | 1-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.66) 0-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.5) 2-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.16) Other @ 0.73% Total : 13.05% | 0-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.24) Other @ 2.63% Total : 7.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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