Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.64%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 12.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.35%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Boavista | Draw | Porto |
12.49% ( -0.46) | 18.87% ( -0.03) | 68.64% ( 0.49) |
Both teams to score 48.29% ( -1.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.36% ( -1.01) | 43.63% ( 1.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.97% ( -1) | 66.03% ( 1) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.65% ( -1.39) | 45.35% ( 1.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.79% ( -1.12) | 81.21% ( 1.11) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.36% ( -0.16) | 11.64% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.33% ( -0.34) | 36.66% ( 0.34) |
Score Analysis |
Boavista | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.17% Total : 12.49% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.8% Total : 18.87% | 0-2 @ 12.2% ( 0.38) 0-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 8.75% ( 0.22) 1-3 @ 6.92% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 4.71% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 3.72% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.14) 0-5 @ 2.03% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.6% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.48% Total : 68.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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