Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
31.87% ( 0.03) | 27.92% ( 0.09) | 40.21% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 47.44% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.58% ( -0.33) | 58.42% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.98% ( -0.26) | 79.02% ( 0.26) |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.29% ( -0.15) | 33.71% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.63% ( -0.16) | 70.37% ( 0.16) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.56% ( -0.23) | 28.43% ( 0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.81% ( -0.29) | 64.19% ( 0.28) |
Score Analysis |
Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 10.42% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.05% 3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 31.87% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.91% | 0-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.24% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.74% Total : 40.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 35 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 78 | 22 | 56 | 90 |
2 | GironaGirona | 35 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 75 | 44 | 31 | 75 |
3 | Barcelona | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 73 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 35 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 70 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 62 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
8 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
9 | Villarreal | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 59 | 60 | -1 | 48 |
10 | Getafe | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 35 | 11 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
15 | Mallorca | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 35 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 35 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 34 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 35 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 49 | -25 | 29 |
R | Granada | 35 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 36 | 68 | -32 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |