Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 57.61%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 18.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
Result | ||
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Almeria |
57.61% ( 0.01) | 24.13% ( -0) | 18.26% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 45.58% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.56% ( 0.01) | 54.43% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.2% ( 0.01) | 75.8% ( -0.01) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.26% ( 0.01) | 18.73% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.89% ( 0.01) | 50.11% ( -0.02) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.09% ( -0) | 43.9% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.95% ( -0) | 80.05% |
Score Analysis |
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Almeria |
1-0 @ 13.77% 2-0 @ 11.53% 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.44% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.3% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.7% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.15% Total : 57.6% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.23% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.91% Other @ 0.65% Total : 24.12% | 0-1 @ 6.77% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.67% 0-2 @ 2.79% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.68% Total : 18.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |