Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 20.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
Result | ||
New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
57.79% ( -2.03) | 22.19% ( 0.29) | 20.02% ( 1.75) |
Both teams to score 54.37% ( 2.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.79% ( 1.33) | 44.21% ( -1.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.41% ( 1.28) | 66.58% ( -1.28) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.97% ( -0.21) | 15.02% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.5% ( -0.4) | 43.5% ( 0.39) |
New York Red Bulls Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.99% ( 2.66) | 36.01% ( -2.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.21% ( 2.62) | 72.79% ( -2.62) |
Score Analysis |
New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
1-0 @ 10.25% ( -0.69) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( -0.72) 3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.51) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.26) 4-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.64% Total : 57.79% | 1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.32) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.36) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.18% | 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.41) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.23) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.14) Other @ 1.81% Total : 20.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 38 | 21 | 17 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 26 |
4 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
5 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 23 |
6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 22 |
7 | Toronto | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 18 |
9 | DC United | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
10 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 16 |
11 | Orlando City | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 16 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 13 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 11 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 25 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 25 |
4 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 24 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 23 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 22 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 18 |
9 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 17 |
10 | Portland TimbersPortland | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 16 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 11 |