Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 66.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.6%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
66.59% ( 0.25) | 20.2% ( -0.1) | 13.21% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 46.11% ( -0.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.3% ( 0.07) | 47.7% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.1% ( 0.07) | 69.9% ( -0.07) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.57% ( 0.1) | 13.43% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.61% ( 0.2) | 40.39% ( -0.2) |
Lecce Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.26% ( -0.2) | 46.74% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.71% ( -0.15) | 82.29% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
2-0 @ 12.65% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 12.6% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.64% Total : 66.58% | 1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.68% Total : 20.2% | 0-1 @ 4.77% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.12% Total : 13.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 81 | 18 | 63 | 89 |
2 | AC Milan | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 70 |
3 | Juventus | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 65 |
4 | Bologna | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 63 |
5 | Roma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 61 | 41 | 20 | 59 |
6 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 57 |
7 | Lazio | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 55 |
8 | Fiorentina | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 50 | 37 | 13 | 50 |
9 | Napoli | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 43 | 9 | 50 |
10 | Torino | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 46 |
11 | Monza | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 44 |
12 | Genoa | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 42 |
13 | Lecce | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 36 |
14 | CagliariCagliari | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 36 | 59 | -23 | 32 |
15 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 31 |
16 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 31 |
17 | Empoli | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 31 |
18 | Udinese | 34 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 29 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 40 | 70 | -30 | 26 |
R | Salernitana | 34 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 26 | 73 | -47 | 15 |
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