The Texas derby takes centre stage this weekend in Major League Soccer as Dallas host the Houston Dynamo from Toyota Stadium on Saturday.
The Toros scored early and often last Saturday en route to beating the Portland Timbers 4-1, while Orange Crush are coming off a 1-1 draw at home against LAFC.
Match preview
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In their previous two fixtures, Luchi Gonzalez has seen two very different sides, one where his team looked overwhelmed by San Jose 3-1 and last weekend where they scored three goals in the first half in a dominating win against the Timbers.
Dallas are looking for a fourth consecutive El Capitan title over Houston, the name of the replica cannon given to whoever wins the season series between these two clubs.
Toyota Stadium has proven to be a tough place for opposing teams to play as Dallas are unbeaten in their last 11 regular games at home.
If they can win on Saturday, it would not only give the Toros an early advantage against their state rivals, but it would also match their best start to a regular season since 2019, when they earned seven points from their first four games.
Since losing in the 2017 Western Conference Finals, the Dynamo have been taking baby steps backwards over the past few seasons.
They missed the playoffs in each of their past three campaigns, finishing ninth, 10th and 12th in the Western Conference standings.
Tab Ramos was given a second chance to get his side back on track, and so far, his team has improved, earning four points from their first three games.
The former American star midfielder would like to see his side take advantage of their set-pieces as they failed to create much last weekend, despite having eight corners and nine free kicks.
They did show a lot of fight in their draw last Saturday, scoring the equaliser just two minutes after Corey Baird gave LAFC the lead on what appeared to be an offside goal.
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Team News
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Jesus Ferreira and Thomas Roberts are the only injury concerns for Dallas as both could miss this game with a shoulder and leg injury, respectively.
Franco Jara is looking for his third goal in his last three Texas derbies at Toyota Stadium, while goalkeeper Jimmy Maurer will try for his third shutout in this season series.
Because of concussions, Dynamo defenders Sam Junqua and Ethan Bartlow could each miss their fourth consecutive match.
Memo Rodriguez has scored in two of his last three matches played at Toyota Stadium, while Darwin Quintero continues to search for his first goal of the season, having led the team in goals and assists in 2020.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Munjoma, Bressan, Martinez, Hollingshead; Tessman, Acosta; Jara, Ricaurte, Vargas; Pepi
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Valentin, Parker, Garcia, Lundqvist; Rodriguez, Vera, Jones; Pasher, Quintero, Picault
We say: Dallas 3-1 Houston Dynamo
The Toros have a slight edge over their arch-rivals, winning the El Capitan title eight times while Houston have won seven.
In the Texas derby history, Dallas have never lost to Houston in the six matches played at Toyota Stadium, outscoring the Dynamo 14-4 in their previous four games played there.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 20.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 1-2 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
