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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.93%) and 0-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-0 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
20.15% ( 0.35) | 22.06% ( 0.35) | 57.79% ( -0.69) |
Both teams to score 55.03% ( -0.59) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.55% ( -1.07) | 43.45% ( 1.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.16% ( -1.06) | 65.84% ( 1.06) |
Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.56% ( -0.26) | 35.44% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.8% ( -0.27) | 72.2% ( 0.28) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.23% ( -0.57) | 14.77% ( 0.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.98% ( -1.11) | 43.02% ( 1.12) |
Score Analysis |
Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
1-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.9% Total : 20.15% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.06% | 0-1 @ 10.01% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 9.93% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.57% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 6.33% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 6.1% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 3.03% ( -0.13) 0-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.11) 2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.08) 1-5 @ 1.16% ( -0.08) 0-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.77% Total : 57.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
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