Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | CF Montreal |
46.08% ( -1.85) | 24.72% ( 0.57) | 29.19% ( 1.28) |
Both teams to score 56.09% ( -1.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.31% ( -1.73) | 46.69% ( 1.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.04% ( -1.64) | 68.95% ( 1.64) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.66% ( -1.47) | 20.33% ( 1.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.28% ( -2.39) | 52.72% ( 2.38) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.41% ( 0.03) | 29.59% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.38% ( 0.04) | 65.62% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | CF Montreal |
1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 7.63% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.32) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.23) 4-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.8% Total : 46.08% | 1-1 @ 11.67% ( 0.33) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.73% | 0-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.53) 1-2 @ 7.11% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.32) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.3% Total : 29.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 31 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 30 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 23 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 23 |
5 | Toronto | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 22 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 21 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 21 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 17 |
9 | DC United | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Orlando City | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 16 |
11 | Nashville SCNashville | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 12 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 10 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 28 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
4 | Austin FCAustin | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 21 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 21 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 19 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
9 | St Louis City | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 16 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
11 | Portland TimbersPortland | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 13 |
12 | Dallas | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 10 |