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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Grimsby Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
47.76% ( 0.24) | 25.7% ( -0.12) | 26.54% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 51.08% ( 0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.64% ( 0.38) | 52.36% ( -0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.95% ( 0.32) | 74.05% ( -0.32) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.07% ( 0.27) | 21.93% ( -0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.79% ( 0.4) | 55.2% ( -0.4) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.42% ( 0.1) | 34.58% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.7% ( 0.11) | 71.3% ( -0.11) |
Score Analysis |
Grimsby Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
1-0 @ 11.5% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.69% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.27% Total : 47.76% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.69% | 0-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 6.49% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.3% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 26.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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