Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.61%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (7.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Braga |
24.96% | 25.42% | 49.61% |
Both teams to score 50.5% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.57% | 52.43% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.89% | 74.11% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.05% | 35.95% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.27% | 72.73% |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.85% | 21.15% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46% | 54% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 7.78% 2-1 @ 6.18% 2-0 @ 3.98% 3-1 @ 2.11% 3-2 @ 1.64% 3-0 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.92% Total : 24.96% | 1-1 @ 12.08% 0-0 @ 7.6% 2-2 @ 4.8% Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.42% | 0-1 @ 11.81% 1-2 @ 9.39% 0-2 @ 9.18% 1-3 @ 4.86% 0-3 @ 4.75% 2-3 @ 2.49% 1-4 @ 1.89% 0-4 @ 1.85% 2-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.44% Total : 49.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |