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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.07%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 5.39%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 4-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.11%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (1.7%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
85.07% ( 0.2) | 9.53% ( -0.02) | 5.39% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 54.28% ( -1.43) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
79.25% ( -0.86) | 20.74% ( 0.85) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
60.85% ( -1.22) | 39.14% ( 1.21) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
96.65% ( -0.12) | 3.35% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
85.27% ( -0.39) | 14.72% ( 0.38) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.16% ( -1.42) | 43.84% ( 1.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.01% ( -1.19) | 79.99% ( 1.18) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
3-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.39) 4-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.27) 5-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.14) 6-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.15) 6-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.08) 5-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.12) 7-0 @ 1.52% ( -0) 7-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.05) 6-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.74% Total : 85.07% | 1-1 @ 4.11% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.07% Total : 9.53% | 1-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.49% Total : 5.39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |